A Study of KZR-616 in Patients With SLE With and Without Lupus Nephritis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (41 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-08-04. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancerpatientspriortherapysitu
  Phrases that lowered it: screeningmedical historyhistory ofperiodstudy
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Design: sequential (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy and Safety of MK-6194 in Adult Participants With Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (MK-6194-006) NCT06161116 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials terminated
• Efficacy and Safety of AMG 570 in Subjects With Active Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE) NCT04058028 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed
• Study of BOS161721 in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE) Patients on a Background of Limited Standard of Care NCT03371251 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed
• A Single Ascending Dose Study in Healthy Participants and Multiple Dose Study of JNJ-55920839 in Participants With Mild to Moderate Systemic Lupus Erythematosus NCT02609789 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• A Study of DS-7011a in Patients With Systemic Lupus Erythematosus NCT05638802 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.