TAGRISSO (Osimertinib) in NSCLC Patients in Whom T790 Mutations Are Detected by Liquid Biopsy

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-04-08. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: breast cancerdltherapyegfruncontrolled
  Phrases that lowered it: trialpatients whoefficacydays beforediseases
• Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 38.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 42 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Osimertinib in First and Second Line Treatment of NSCLC Harboring EGFR Mutations From Circulating Tumor DNA NCT02769286 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• BPI-7711 Capsule in Patients With EGFR Mutation T790M Positive Non-small Cell Lung Cancer NCT03386955 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed
• EGF816 and Trametinib in Patients With Non-small Cell Lung Cancer Harboring Activating EGFR Mutations NCT03516214 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
• Olmutinib Trial in T790M (+) NSCLC Patients Detected by Liquid Biopsy Using BALF Extracellular Vesicular DNA NCT03228277 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed
• Study of Efficacy and Safety of Nivolumab in Combination With EGF816 and of Nivolumab in Combination With INC280 in Patients With Previously Treated Non-small Cell Lung Cancer NCT02323126 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.