A Pharmacokinetics Study of Favipiravir in Patients With Severe Influenza
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 10% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (331 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2019-03-27, after 2018-02-06 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-03-27. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: stageof studydaysventilationtime
Phrases that lowered it: the pharmacokineticsinfluenzaparticipantpharmacokinetics ofevaluate the -
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 19 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 10.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 21 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 63.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 3 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 21 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 19
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 12433 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 2261 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 63.0% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 10.7% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- favipiravir, oseltamivir
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- T-705a Multicenter Study in Adults Subjects With Uncomplicated Influenza NCT01728753 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
- Phase 3 Efficacy and Safety Study of Favipiravir for Treatment of Uncomplicated Influenza in Adults NCT02008344 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
- Phase 3 Efficacy and Safety Study of Favipiravir for Treatment of Uncomplicated Influenza in Adults - T705US316 NCT02026349 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
- Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Danirixin Co-administered With Oseltamivir in the Treatment of Adults Hospitalized With Influenza NCT02927431 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials terminated
- Dose-Finding Study of Favipiravir in the Treatment of Uncomplicated Influenza NCT01068912 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.