Study To Evaluate The Efficacy And Safety Of Oral PF-06651600 And PF-06700841 In Subjects With Moderate To Severe Crohn's Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 26% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 18% of the time (280 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-10-19. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: pfpaindiseasepresencegreater
  Phrases that lowered it: mgvaccineevaluate theto evaluateopen label
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 1718 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 143 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of PF-06687234 as Add-on Therapy to Infliximab in Active UC Subjects Not in Remission. NCT03269695 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials terminated
• Vedolizumab IV in Pediatric Participants With Ulcerative Colitis (UC) or Crohn's Disease (CD) NCT03138655 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
• A Study Evaluating the Efficacy and Safety of ST-0529 in Subjects With Moderately to Severely Active Ulcerative Colitis NCT03844932 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Test Whether BI 706321 Combined With Ustekinumab Helps People With Crohn's Disease NCT04978493 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials terminated
• Safety, Efficacy, and Tolerability Study of PF-06480605 in Subjects With Moderate to Severe Ulcerative Colitis. NCT02840721 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.