Bisphosphonates for Prevention of Post-Denosumab Bone Loss
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 15% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (220 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2023-06-09, after 2018-01-29 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-06-09. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 20.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 97 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 11.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: to assesslossassess thechronicbowel
Phrases that lowered it: participantparticipantsaminotransferaseinflammatoryresponse -
Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 93292 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past trials: 285 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 81.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 20 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 55 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- female (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 285 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 20.7% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 97 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 93292 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 9826 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 81.6% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 11.0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- metabolic, musculoskeletal
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- alendronate, zoledronic acid
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Denosumab for Prevention of Post-Teriparatide Bone Loss in Premenopausal Women With IOP NCT02049866 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
- Effects of Denosumab on Bone Mineral Density in Women With Anorexia Nervosa: A Pilot Study NCT03292146 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed
- A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of Denosumab and Ibandronate in Postmenopausal Women Sub-Optimally Treated With Daily or Weekly Bisphosphonates NCT00936897 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
- A Transiliac Crest Bone Histology and Histomorphometry Study in Postmenopausal Women With Low Bone Mass or Osteoporosis Previously Treated With Denosumab NCT00887965 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
- Forteo Trial on Idiopathic Osteoporosis in Premenopausal Women NCT01440803 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.