Phase IIb Study Evaluating Immunogenic Chemotherapy Combined With Ipilimumab and Nivolumab in Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 20% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-05-11. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: metastaticdose ofrandomizationcancercell
  Phrases that lowered it: influenzapaineffect ofthe effectarthritis
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 7 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 62 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 168 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 24.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 92.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 31674 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Atezolizumab Combined With Immunogenic Chemotherapy in Patients With Metastatic Triple-negative Breast Cancer NCT03164993 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed
• Atezolizumab and Varlilumab in Combination With Radiation Therapy for NSCLC NCT04081688 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials terminated
• Carboplatin +/- Nivolumab in Metastatic Triple Negative Breast Cancer NCT03414684 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
• IO102-IO103 in Combination With Pembrolizumab as First-line Treatment for Patients With Metastatic NSCLC, SCCHN, or mUBC NCT05077709 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
• Pembrolizumab With Carboplatin Compared to Carboplatin Alone in Breast Cancer Patients With Chest Wall Disease NCT03095352 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.