Study of Rogaratinib (BAY1163877) vs Chemotherapy in Patients With FGFR (Fibroblast Growth Factor Receptor)-Positive Locally Advanced or Metastatic Urothelial Carcinoma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 34% of the time (35 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-10-27. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: tumorsadvancedcancerpatients withsolid
  Phrases that lowered it: containingto evaluateevaluate thernaweeks before
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 120 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 782 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.2% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phase 1 Study of the Combination of Rogaratinib With Copanlisib in Patients With Fibroblast Growth Factor Receptor (FGFR)-Positive, Locally Advanced or Metastatic Solid Tumors NCT03517956 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed
• Phase 1b/2 Study of Rogaratinib (BAY1163877) in Combination With Atezolizumab in Urothelial Carcinoma NCT03473756 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed
• A Dose Escalation Study in Solid Tumors and a Dose Expansion Study of PRN1371 in Adult Patients With Metastatic Urothelial Carcinoma NCT02608125 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials terminated
• Pemigatinib + Pembrolizumab vs Pemigatinib Alone vs Standard of Care for Urothelial Carcinoma (FIGHT-205) NCT04003610 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials terminated
• Dose Escalation, Expansion Study of Vofatamab (B-701) in Treatment of Locally Advanced or Metastatic Urothelial Cell Carcinoma NCT02401542 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.