Fecal Microbial Transplant for Alcohol Misuse in Cirrhosis
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 17% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (651 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2020-04-10, after 2018-02-01 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-04-10. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: transplantcellsbowelpatientspatient
Phrases that lowered it: alcoholabusehealthageddrinking -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Minimum age: 21 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 5 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past trials: 7 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
-
Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 21 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 75 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 7 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 5 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- psychiatry
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- FMT in Cirrhosis and Hepatic Encephalopathy NCT03796598 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
- Fecal Transplant in Recurrent Hepatic Encephalopathy NCT02636647 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
- Investigational Microbiota Restoration Therapeutic for Hepatic Encephalopathy NCT04155099 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials terminated
- Oral Fecal Transplant in Cirrhosis NCT03152188 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials completed
- Transplantation of Microbes for Treatment of Metabolic Syndrome & NAFLD NCT02496390 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.