Neoantigen-based Personalized Vaccine Combined With Immune Checkpoint Blockade Therapy in Patients With Newly Diagnosed, Unmethylated Glioblastoma
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 22% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2020-12-31, after 2018-10-31 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “business”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: sclerosiscanceradjuvantstagewomen of
Phrases that lowered it: arthritisrheumatoidpsoriasisvaccineopen -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 18.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 28.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 147 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Design: sequential (lowers risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 14362 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 87.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 5 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- sequential (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 534 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 18.5% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 147 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 43244 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 14362 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 87.5% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 28.7% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- ipilimumab, nivolumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Neoepitope-based Personalized Vaccine Approach in Patients With Newly Diagnosed Glioblastoma NCT02510950 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials terminated
- Neo-adjuvant Evaluation of Glioma Lysate Vaccines in WHO Grade II Glioma NCT02549833 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
- Phase I Study of a Dendritic Cell Vaccine for Patients With Either Newly Diagnosed or Recurrent Glioblastoma NCT02010606 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
- Multi Peptide Vaccination with XS15 in Addition to Standard Postoperative Radiation Therapy and Temozolomide Chemotherapy in Newly Diagnosed Glioblastoma NCT04842513 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
- A Study of Varlilumab and IMA950 Vaccine Plus Poly-ICLC in Patients With WHO Grade II Low-Grade Glioma (LGG) NCT02924038 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.