Nicotinamide Riboside in Systolic Heart Failure
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 19% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 17% of the time (106 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2019-06-30, after 2016-05-19 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: heartlong termfailureto determineplacebo
Phrases that lowered it: participantsinflammatorynonthe upperupper limit -
Primary purpose: other (lowers risk) · Design
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 90 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor's past trials: 352 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- other (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- triple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 2 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 352 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 7.7% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 90 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cardiovascular
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Nicotinamide Riboside in SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) Patients for Renal Protection NCT04818216 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
- NAD+ Precursor Supplementation in Friedreich's Ataxia NCT04817111 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
- Nicotinamide Riboside as an Enhancer of Exercise Therapy in Hypertensive Older Adults (The NEET Trial) NCT04112043 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials completed
- Efficacy and Safety of Human Neuregulin-1 to Treat Stable Chronic Heart Failure NCT01251406 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
- Oral Nitrite for Older Heart Failure Patients NCT02457260 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.