A Longitudinal Assessment of Tumor Evolution in Patients With Brain Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 16% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (918 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2023-10-27, after 2018-03-01 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-10-27. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: tumorbraincancertherapyuncontrolled
Phrases that lowered it: participantevaluateblood pressuredrughas history -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 50% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 28.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 103329 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Number of arms: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 22991 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 5 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 6 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 5 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 8 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 50% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 3 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 5 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 103329 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 22991 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 89.9% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 28.4% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- bevacizumab, ipilimumab, lomustine, nivolumab, temozolomide
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Hypofractionated Stereotactic Irradiation (HFSRT) With Pembrolizumab and Bevacizumab for Recurrent High Grade Gliomas NCT02313272 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed
- Hypofractionated Stereotactic Irradiation With Nivolumab, Ipilimumab and Bevacizumab in Patients With Recurrent High Grade Gliomas NCT02829931 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
- Trial of Combination Tumor Treating Fields (TTF; Optune), Nivolumab Plus/Minus Ipilimumab for Recurrent Glioblastoma NCT03430791 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials terminated
- Neoadjuvant Nivolumab in Glioblastoma NCT02550249 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
- Pembrolizumab and Vorinostat Combined With Temozolomide for Newly Diagnosed Glioblastoma NCT03426891 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.