A Phase 3 Study of Tenapanor to Treat Hyperphosphatemia in ESRD Patients on Dialysis
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 13% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (803 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2020-02-27, after 2018-01-08 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-02-27. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: donorplacebo controlleddialysistransplantto screening
Phrases that lowered it: evaluate theopen labelperitonealto evaluateefficacy -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 45.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.6% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 10.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- triple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 80 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 18 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 5.6% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 3 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 3 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 9872 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1171 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 45.2% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 10.6% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- metabolic
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- sevelamer, sevelamer carbonate, tenapanor
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- An 8-Week Study to Evaluate Tenapanor in the Treatment of Hyperphosphatemia in End-Stage Renal Disease Patients on Hemodialysis (ESRD-HD) NCT02675998 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
- Study to Evaluate the Efficacy of Tenapanor as Adjunctive Therapy to Phosphate Binder Therapy NCT03824587 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
- Study of Phosphate Levels in Patients With Chronic Kidney Disease NCT00824460 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
- Dose Finding Study to Treat High Phosphate Levels in the Blood. NCT02081534 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
- A Phase 2 Study of TS-172 in Hyperphosphatemia Patients on Hemodialysis With Phosphate Binders NCT06745518 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.