Study in Adult Subjects Undergoing Posterolateral Thoracotomy
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 14% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (4,470 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2018-09-28, after 2018-05-03 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-09-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 17.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: blockmyocardialstrokeischemicinfarction
Phrases that lowered it: openevaluate theto evaluatepharmacokineticssafety -
Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 12 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor's past trials: 64 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 64 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 17.2% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 12 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- PK Study of EXPAREL in Subjects Undergoing Open Spinal Fusion or Reconstructive Surgery NCT02985762 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
- Intercostal Nerve Block With Liposome Bupivacaine in Subjects Undergoing Posterolateral Thoracotomy NCT01802411 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed
- Dose Finding Posterolateral Thoracotomy Study NCT00807209 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials terminated
- Parasternal Nerve Block in Cardiac Patients NCT01826851 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
- Study to Evaluate the Pharmacokinetics, Pharmacodynamics and Safety, of EXPAREL Administered as Sciatic Nerve Block (In Popliteal Fossa), for Postsurgical Analgesia in Subjects Undergoing Bunionectomy NCT04002089 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.