A Study to Evaluate the Pharmacokinetics and Safety of ASC16 Tablets in Healthy Volunteers in China
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 2% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (776 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2018-04-09, after 2018-01-15 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-04-09. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: effectivesurgerythe investigatorsdiseasestage
Phrases that lowered it: healthyand safetyvolunteerssafety ofthe pharmacokinetics -
Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Number of arms: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Blinding: none (lowers risk) · Design
-
Maximum age: 45 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 6 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- crossover (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 45 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 6 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 5 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 2 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 100% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, digestive
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- ravidasvir
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study of the Relative Bioavailability of ASC41 in Healthy Subjects NCT04527250 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
- A Study of the Pharmacokinetics of ASC09F in Healthy Subjects NCT04547894 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
- Study to Evaluate Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and the Food Effect on PK of ASC10 Tablets in Healthy Subjects NCT05523141 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
- Study of A4250 in Healthy Volunteers Under Fasting, Fed and Sprinkled Conditions NCT03608319 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 0% of active trials completed
- A Study to Assess the Relative Bioavailability Between Two ASP015K Tablets and the Food Effect of a New Tablet in Healthy Adult Subjects NCT01929577 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 0% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.