A Novel Regimen to Prevent Malaria and STI in Pregnant Women With HIV

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (331 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-01-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: acutepurpose ofthe purposewomenpregnancy
  Phrases that lowered it: malariareceivetrial isefficacy andadverse
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 11.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 87 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 281 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 109731 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 79.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 17124 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 55 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 16 (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Prevention of Malaria in HIV-uninfected Pregnant Women and Infants NCT02793622 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• Establishing Effectiveness of Daily Co-trimoxazole Prophylaxis For Prevention of Malaria in Pregnancy NCT01053325 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed
• Improving PRegnancy Outcomes With PReVEntive Therapy in Africa-2 (IMPROVE-2) NCT04158713 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• Reducing the Burden of Malaria in HIV-Infected Pregnant Women and Their HIV-Exposed Children (PROMOTE-BC2) NCT02282293 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• Prevention of Pregnancy-associated Malaria in HIV-infected Women: Cotrimoxazole Prophylaxis Versus Mefloquine NCT00970879 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.