SARC031: MEK Inhibitor Selumetinib (AZD6244) in Combination With the mTOR Inhibitor Sirolimus for Patients With Malignant Peripheral Nerve Sheath Tumors

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 29% for any early termination, 20% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-10-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: metastaticsurgerybowelchemotherapysyndrome
  Phrases that lowered it: patients whocorticosteroidsvaccinepressuremmhg
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 20% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 16.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 10 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 84.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 12 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 8002 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• LEE011 Plus Everolimus in Patients With Metastatic Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma Refractory to Chemotherapy NCT02985125 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed
• Axitinib and Pembrolizumab in Subjects With Advanced Alveolar Soft Part Sarcoma and Other Soft Tissue Sarcomas NCT02636725 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
• MEK Inhibitor and a PDL1 Inhibitor Patients With Locally Advanced and/or Metastatic Soft Tissue Sarcoma NCT04216953 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• Pembrolizumab (Anti-PD-1) and AMG386 (Angiopoietin-2 (Ang-2) in Patients With Advanced Solid Tumor NCT03239145 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
• A Phase I Study of BKM120 and Everolimus in Advanced Solid Malignancies NCT01470209 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 53% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.