Safety and Efficacy of SFPP in Knee Osteoarthritis
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 4% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (1,463 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2021-01-11, after 2018-02-05 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-01-11. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: tumorextensioniipatientsbearing
Phrases that lowered it: kneeosteoarthritisefficacypainevaluate the -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 10 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 85.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 40 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 10 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 7 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 277 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 83 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 85.9% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 9.0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- diclofenac diethylamine, esflurbiprofen
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- To Study Generic Diclofenac Sodium Topical Gel 1% in the Treatment of Osteoarthritis of the Knee (Degenerative Joint Disease Presented as Joint Pain, Stiffness, Swelling and Restricted Motion). NCT02596451 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
- Study Comparing a Generic Diclofenac Sodium Topical Gel, 1% to Voltaren in the Treatment of Subjects With Osteoarthritis of the Knee NCT02121002 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
- Osteoarthritis Topical Treatment NCT01496326 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
- Safety Study of a Long-Acting Injectable Steroid to Treat Knee Osteoarthritis NCT02609126 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
- Evaluation of Clinical Endpoints of Two Diclofenac Sodium Gel 1% NCT01456611 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.