A Study of ARRY-371797 (PF-07265803) in Patients With Symptomatic Dilated Cardiomyopathy Due to a Lamin A/C Gene Mutation

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 33% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (493 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-10-13. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: carcinomacancercellheartcoronary
  Phrases that lowered it: screeningvisitand safetyopen labelefficacy and
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 1734 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 136 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of ARRY-371797 in Patients With LMNA-Related Dilated Cardiomyopathy NCT02057341 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
• Phase Ib/IIa Trial With AC01 in Patients With HFrEF NCT05642507 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
• Effect of Elamipretide on Left Ventricular Function in Subjects With Stable Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction NCT02788747 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials completed
• Ranolazine in Diastolic Heart Failure NCT01163734 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety, and Tolerability of MYK-224 in Participants With Symptomatic Obstructive Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy NCT05556343 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.