Anemia Study in Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) : Erythropoiesis Via a Novel Prolyl Hydroxylase Inhibitor (PHI) Daprodustat -Forearm Blood Flow (ASCEND-FBF)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 16% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 25% of the time (96 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2019-05-29, after 2019-01-10 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-05-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past trials: 2546 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 39.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 156 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: anemiaironchronicto screeningdialysis
Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantthe effecteffect ofday -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.8% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 2546 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 6.8% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 156 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 5 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 43436 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 4948 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 92.0% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 39.3% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- hematology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- acetylcholine, arginine, daprodustat, darbepoetin alfa, monomethyl, nitroprusside
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Anemia Studies in CKD: Erythropoiesis Via a Novel Prolyl Hydroxylase Inhibitor (PHI) Daprodustat- Iron (ASCEND: Fe) NCT03457701 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
- Anemia Study in Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD): Erythropoiesis Via a Novel Prolyl Hydroxylase Inhibitor (PHI) Daprodustat-Blood Pressure (ASCEND-BP) NCT03029247 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
- Anemia Studies in Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD): Erythropoiesis Via a Novel Prolyl Hydroxylase Inhibitor (PHI) Daprodustat in Non-Dialysis Subjects Evaluating Hemoglobin (Hgb) and Quality of Life (ASCEND-NHQ) NCT03409107 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
- Anemia Studies in Chronic Kidney Disease: Erythropoiesis Via a Novel Prolyl Hydroxylase Inhibitor Daprodustat-Dialysis (ASCEND-D) NCT02879305 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials completed
- Evaluation of Dose Response Relationship, Safety and Efficacy of GSK1278863 in Hemodialysis-dependent Subjects With Chronic Kidney Disease Associated Anemia NCT01977482 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.