PRIMEx - A Study of 2 Doses of Oral CXA-10 in Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension (PAH)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (389 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-08-05. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjectspulmonaryheartventricularmri
  Phrases that lowered it: evaluate thepharmacokineticsto evaluatehealthefficacy and
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Keywords listed: 16 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety, Pharmacokinetics and Efficacy Study of QCC374 in PAH Patients NCT02927366 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials terminated
• Phase III Clinical Worsening Study of UT-15C in Subjects With PAH Receiving Background Oral Monotherapy NCT01560624 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• A Phase 2 Study to Determine the Safety and Efficacy of AIR001 in Subjects With Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension (PAH) NCT01725256 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials terminated
• Oral CXA-10 in Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension NCT04125745 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials terminated
• Study of Macitentan (ACT-064992) on Morbidity and Mortality in Patients With Symptomatic Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension NCT00660179 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.