Comparison of Arterolane-piperaquine Versus Arterolane-piperaquine+Mefloquine Versus Artemether-lumefantrine in Kenyan Children

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 10% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (313 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-06-03. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.4% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 67 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 6.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 2 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 203 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: acutehospitalsafety tolerabilitypresentationhours
  Phrases that lowered it: efficacy andtrialopen labelchildrenrandomised
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 89.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 3 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy and Safety of Pyronaridine-Artesunate Versus Artemether-Lumefantrine NCT05192265 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• Study to Compare the Triple ACT AL+AQ With the ACT AL in Cambodia and Vietnam NCT03355664 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
• Azithromycin Plus Chloroquine Versus Artemether-Lumefantrine For The Treatment Of Uncomplicated P. Falciparum Malaria In Children In Africa NCT00677833 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials completed
• Optimising Operational Use of Artemether-lumefantrine Comparing 3 Day Versus 5 Day NCT02020330 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
• Artemisinin-Based Antimalarial Combinations and Clinical Response in Cameroon NCT01845701 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.