The Effect of Simvastatin on Breast Cancer Cell Growth in Women With Stage I-II Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 23% for any early termination, 17% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-10-06. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: breast cancercellstagecellsatrial
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsdiseasesaminotransferaseeffectthe study
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 8.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 19 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 178736 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 17949 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Allocation: not applicable (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of Statin as Neo-Adjuvant Therapy in Postmenopausal Breast Cancer NCT00816244 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
• STOP Heart Disease in Breast Cancer Survivors Trial NCT02674204 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
• A Phase I Prevention Study of Atorvastatin in Women at Increased Risk for Breast Cancer NCT00637481 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
• Atorvastatin in Treating Patients With Stage IIb-III Triple Negative Breast Cancer Who Did Not Achieve a Pathologic Complete Response After Receiving Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy NCT03872388 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials terminated
• Rosuvastatin in Treating Women With Cardiovascular Complications Who Are Undergoing Chemotherapy For Breast Cancer NCT01051401 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.