Study to Assess Efficacy and Safety of XC221 in the Treatment of Influenza and Other Acute Respiratory Viral Infections

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 7% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (780 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-06-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: influenzawomenacutemeninfection
  Phrases that lowered it: asthmadiseasesefficacyclinicalthe study
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 5 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, infectious disease: Yes (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Assess Efficacy and Safety of XC221 200 mg in the Treatment of Influenza or Other ARVI NCT03830905 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• XC8 in the Treatment of Patients With Acute Respiratory Viral Infection NCT03441373 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability and Efficacy of XC221 in Patients With Uncomplicated Influenza or Other Acute Viral Upper Respiratory Infections NCT05030324 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of XC221 in Patients With Uncomplicated Influenza or Other Acute Viral Upper Respiratory Infections NCT05544916 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• ADC189 Tablets on Influenza A Virus Infection/Influenza B Virus Infection NCT06342921 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.