Autologous, Culture-Expanded Mesenchymal Stromal Cells for Degenerative Disc Disease
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 28% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (3,836 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2021-02-06, after 2018-10-17 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “other”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-02-06. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: painsubjectschronicindexlow back
Phrases that lowered it: gradetherapyaminotransferasestem cellautologous -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 862 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 242 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
-
Blinding: none (lowers risk) · Design
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- sequential (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 862 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 13.0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 242 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- musculoskeletal
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- AMG0103 in Subjects With Chronic Discogenic Lumbar Back Pain NCT03263611 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
- Efficacy of Intradiscal Injection of Autologous BM-MSC in Worker Patients Affected by Chronic LBP Due to Multilevel IDD NCT04759105 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
- Evaluation of Safety, Tolerability, and Efficacy of CordSTEM-DD in Patients With Chronic Low Back Pain NCT04530071 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed
- Placebo-controlled Study to Evaluate Rexlemestrocel-L Alone or Combined With Hyaluronic Acid in Participants With Chronic Low Back Pain NCT02412735 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
- Treatment of Symptomatic Lumbar Internal Disc Disruption (IDD) With the Biostat® System NCT01011816 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.