(VOYAGER) Study of Avapritinib vs Regorafenib in Patients With Locally Advanced Unresectable or Metastatic GIST
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 12% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2021-09-15, after 2018-03-26 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-09-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cancerof studytumordose oftherapy
Phrases that lowered it: patients whocriteria patientsgastrointestinalgistclinically significant -
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 21.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Keywords listed: 27 (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 27 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 4606 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1078 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 88.4% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 21.9% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, digestive
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- avapritinib, regorafenib
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study of THE-630 in Patients With Advanced Gastrointestinal Stromal Tumors (GIST) NCT05160168 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials terminated
- (NAVIGATOR) Study of BLU-285 in Patients With Gastrointestinal Stromal Tumors (GIST) and Other Relapsed and Refractory Solid Tumors NCT02508532 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
- BGJ398 in Combination With Imatinib Mesylate in Patients With Untreated Advanced Gastrointestinal Stromal Tumor (GIST) NCT02257541 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
- A Study to Assess DCC-2618 and Sunitinib in Patients With Advanced GIST After Treatment With Imatinib NCT04633122 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
- Single Agent Regorafenib in First-line for Metastatic/Unresectable KIT/PDGFR Wild Type GIST NCT02638766 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.