BGB A317 in Combination With Chemotherapy as First-Line Treatment in Adults With Inoperable, Locally Advanced or Metastatic Esophageal, Gastric, or Gastroesophageal Junction Carcinoma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-08-19. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjects withpriorulnchronicmetastatic
  Phrases that lowered it: diseasestype diabetespdsystemicadministration
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 16 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 22.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 134384 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 91.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 20220 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Pembrolizumab + Imprime PGG for Metastatic Non-small Cell Lung Cancer After Progression on First-Line Therapy: Big Ten Cancer Research Consortium BTCRC-LUN15-017 NCT03003468 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• ADG116 in Combination With Pembrolizumab in Patients With Advanced/Metastatic Solid Tumors NCT05277402 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy of SB 11285 Alone and in Combination With Atezolizumab in Patients With Advanced Solid Tumors NCT04096638 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of Safety and Activity of an Anti-PDL1 Antibody (DURVALUMAB) Combined With CSF-1R TKI (PEXIDARTINIB) in Patients With Metastatic/Advanced Pancreatic or Colorectal Cancers NCT02777710 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
• GRN-1201 With Pembrolizumab in Subjects With Metastatic PD-L1+ NSCLC NCT03417882 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.