High-dose Vitamin D3 in Pancreas Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 12% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (607 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2021-04-20, after 2018-04-01 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-04-20. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 3.4% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cancerpancreatictherapyvitamin18 years
Phrases that lowered it: the effecteffect ofopenresultsdose -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Maximum age: 99 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 29 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Primary purpose: supportive care (lowers risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- supportive care (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 99 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 87 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 3.4% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 29 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, digestive, metabolic, endocrine
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Study of Vitamin D Supplementation Tailored to Vitamin D Deficiency in Breast Cancer Patients NCT01480869 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials completed
- High Dose Vitamin D Study NCT01150877 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
- Vitamin D Levels in Stage IV Colorectal Cancer Patients NCT01074216 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
- Metabolic Effects of Vitamin D in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes NCT00812578 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
- Effects of Treating Vitamin D Deficiency in Poorly Controlled Type 2 Diabetes NCT01855321 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.