Study of Dose Confirmation and Safety of Crizanlizumab in Pediatric Sickle Cell Disease Patients

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 24% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (780 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-11-06. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellpriorulnreceivingcarcinoma
  Phrases that lowered it: investigatorto evaluatescreeningparticipantsafety
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 160 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 1158 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 17 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 2 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of FTX-6058 NCT04586985 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• A Safety, Efficacy, and Pharmacokinetic (PK) Study of HBI-002, an Oral Carbon Monoxide (CO) Therapeutic, in Subjects With Sickle Cell Disease (SCD) NCT06144749 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 53% of active trials completed
• Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, And Pharmacodynamics Study Of PF-04447943, Co-Administered With And Without Hydroxyurea, In Subjects With Stable Sickle Cell Disease NCT02114203 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• Dose Escalation Study of PF-07209326 in Healthy Participants and Participants With Sickle Cell Disease NCT04255875 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
• Dose Escalation Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, PK and PD of Voxelotor in Patients With SCD NCT04247594 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.