Vitamine D in Drug Resistant Epilepsy

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 17% of the time (276 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-12-09. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 28.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: epilepsyvitaminsurgerytreatment ofprior
  Phrases that lowered it: effect ofpatientsthe effectdrugparticipate in
• Collaborators: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 65.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 174247 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 15 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 25332 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Keywords listed: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 7 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Vitamin D Supplementation to Prevent Vitamin D Deficiency for Children With Epilepsy NCT03536845 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• Controlled, Randomized, Four-arm Comparative, Open Label, Multi-centric Clinical Trial to Compare the Efficacy and Safety Parameters of the Once-a-week or Once-a-month Administered 7000 IU, or 30000 IU Vitamin D (Cholecalciferol) to a 1000 IU Dosage Applied Daily in Vitamin D Deficient Patients NCT02069990 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• The Efficacy and the Safety of Vitamin D3 30,000 IU for Loading Dose Schedules NCT04476511 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• Efficacy of Cholecalciferol (Vitamin D3) for Delaying the Diagnosis of MS After a Clinically Isolated Syndrome NCT01817166 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
• Importance of Dosing Regimen for the Effect of Vitamin D Supplementation NCT03272126 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.