ProSTAR: A Study Evaluating CPI-1205 in Patients With Metastatic Castration Resistant Prostate Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 29% of the time (655 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-02-03. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: ventricularmetastaticpatientbrainheart
  Phrases that lowered it: prostatesmall cellpsapatients whoor suspected
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 8 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 13.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 69.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 42814 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 212098 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Dose-Escalation and Efficacy Study of LAE001/Prednisone Plus Afuresertib Patients With m-CRPC NCT04060394 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed
• Biomarker Analysis of Castration-resistant Prostate Cancer Undergoing Bipolar Androgen Therapy NCT04424654 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
• Enzalutamide and Niclosamide in Treating Patients With Recurrent or Metastatic Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer NCT03123978 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• Docetaxel Versus Cabazitaxel Post Abiraterone or Enzalutamide NCT03764540 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials terminated
• Trial of ARV-110 in Patients With Metastatic Castration Resistant Prostate Cancer NCT03888612 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.