Study in Pediatric Subjects Evaluating Pharmacokinetics and Safety of EXPAREL

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 5% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (4,470 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-02-12. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: surgeryprimaryspinalstudy iscare
  Phrases that lowered it: the pharmacokineticsevaluate thesafety ofto evaluatesubjects
• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 17.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 12 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 16 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 64 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Multicenter Study for Pediatric Subjects Evaluating Pharmacokinetics and Safety of EXPAREL NCT03682302 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• PK Study of EXPAREL in Subjects Undergoing Open Spinal Fusion or Reconstructive Surgery NCT02985762 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of Safety, Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics of EXPAREL® Administered Via a Single Intrathecal Injection to Healthy Volunteers NCT04173611 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials terminated
• Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety, and Pharmacokinetics of EXPAREL, EXPAREL Admixed With Bupivacaine HCl vs. Bupivacaine HCl Administered as Combined Sciatic and Saphenous Nerve Blocks for Postsurgical Analgesia in Subjects Undergoing Lower Extremity Surgeries NCT04518462 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Pharmacokinetics, Pharmacodynamics and Safety, of EXPAREL Administered as Sciatic Nerve Block (In Popliteal Fossa), for Postsurgical Analgesia in Subjects Undergoing Bunionectomy NCT04002089 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.