Efficacy And Safety Of Tofacitinib In Chinese Subjects With Active Psoriatic Arthritis
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 10% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (238 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2021-04-28, after 2018-08-10 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-04-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: psapatientspainfulin treatingwith exception
Phrases that lowered it: arthritispsoriasisinadequate responserheumaticplaque -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 40.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past trials: 1750 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 2.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 149 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports before start: 47635 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1750 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 15.9% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 149 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 47635 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 19645 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 40.4% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 2.6% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- dermatology, musculoskeletal
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- tofacitinib
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Tofacitinib In Psoriatic Arthritis Subjects With Inadequate Response to TNF Inhibitors NCT01882439 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
- Efficacy And Safety Of Tofacitinib In Psoriatic Arthritis: Comparator Study NCT01877668 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
- Safety and Efficacy of Tofacitinib vs Methotrexate in the Treatment of Psoriatic Arthritis NCT03736161 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed
- A Study to Evaluate Safety and Efficacy of Infliximab in Chinese Participants With Moderate to Severe Plaque-type Psoriasis NCT01177800 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
- A Study to Assess Efficacy and Safety of Filgotinib in Active Psoriatic Arthritis NCT03101670 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.