A Study of Experimental Medication BMS-986036 in Adults With Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis (NASH) and Liver Cirrhosis
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 26% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 18% of the time (280 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2021-09-14, after 2018-06-12 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-09-14. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: placebodouble blindrandomized doublebmshepatitis
Phrases that lowered it: participantsliverhepaticvitaminnormal -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor's past trials: 623 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 124 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 4 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 75 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 623 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 10.4% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 124 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- digestive
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- pegbelfermin
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study of Experimental Medication BMS-986036 in Adults With Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis (NASH) and Stage 3 Liver Fibrosis NCT03486899 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
- A Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, and Drug Levels of BMS-963272 in Participants With Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease NCT04766476 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials terminated
- Safety and Effectiveness of BMS-986263 in Adults With Compensated Cirrhosis (Liver Disease) From Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis (NASH) NCT04267393 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials terminated
- Simtuzumab (SIM, GS-6624) in the Treatment of Cirrhosis Due to NASH NCT01672879 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials terminated
- A Study of BOS-580 in Obese Subjects at Risk for, or With Biopsy-confirmed, Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis (NASH) With an Extension NCT04880031 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.