Study of AGB101 in Mild Cognitive Impairment Due to Alzheimer's Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 26% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (370 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-11-02. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: alzheimersubjectcognitivesubjectsad
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsgoodscreeningthe effectwilling
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 55 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Keywords listed: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 85 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• AC-1204 26-Week Long Term Efficacy Response Trial With Optional Open-label Ext NCT01741194 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, and Blood Levels of ACU193 in Participants With MCI or Mild AD NCT04931459 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• Safety, Tolerability, PK and PD of Posiphen® in Subjects With Early Alzheimer's Disease NCT02925650 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• A Phase II Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability and Efficacy of Xanamem™ in Subjects With Mild Dementia Due to AD (XanADu) NCT02727699 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials completed
• A Phase II Trial of Florbetapir (18F) Positron Emission Tomography (PET) Imaging in Japan of Healthy Volunteers, Patients With Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) and Patients With Alzheimer's Disease (AD) NCT01662882 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.