A Single-Center Evaluation of the Relative Efficacy of EM-100 Compared to Zaditor® (Ketotifen Fumarate Ophthalmic Solution 0.035%) and Vehicle

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 8% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (336 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-04-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: oculareyebe willingassociatedtreatment of
  Phrases that lowered it: allergenallergicsingletrialpositive skin
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 32.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.1% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 2.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 147 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 5 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Single Center Study for the Treatment of Moderate to Severe Allergic Conjunctivitis (EBI-005-AC-1) NCT02082899 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of AL-4943A Ophthalmic Solution in Patients With Allergic Conjunctivitis Using the Conjunctival Allergen Challenge (CAC) Model NCT01479374 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
• A Study Evaluating Bilastine Ophthalmic Solution 0.6% in the Conjunctival Allergen Challenge (Ora-CAC®) Model. NCT03479307 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• A Study of ADX-102 in Subjects With Allergic Conjunctivitis NCT03012165 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy Study of AL-53817 and AL-78843 Ophthalmic Solutions for Allergic Conjunctivitis NCT02079649 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.