Short Course Daratumumab in Patients With Multiple Myeloma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 20% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-03-23. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patientenrollmenttherapypriorsubject is
  Phrases that lowered it: myelomacriteria patientssafety ofpatients whomultiple
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.1% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 126 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 487 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 152848 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 19.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 29757 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Daratumumab Based Response Adapted Therapy for Older Adults With Newly Diagnosed Multiple Myeloma NCT04151667 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed
• Study Comparing Daratumumab, Lenalidomide, and Dexamethasone With Lenalidomide and Dexamethasone in Participants With Previously Untreated Multiple Myeloma NCT02252172 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
• Daratumumab Retreatment in Participants With Multiple Myeloma Who Have Been Previously Treated With Daratumumab NCT03871829 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials terminated
• Daratumumab in Combination With ATRA NCT02751255 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
• Daratumumab in Treating Participants With Relapsed Multiple Myeloma After Stem Cell Transplant NCT03622775 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.