Arimoclomol in Amyotropic Lateral Sclerosis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (734 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-12-18. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: sclerosissubjecthoursalsventilation
  Phrases that lowered it: evaluate thetrialto evaluatelaboratoryand safety
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Arimoclomol in Amyotropic Lateral Sclerosis - Open Label Extension Trial NCT03836716 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials terminated
• Study of Rasagiline in Patients With Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis NCT01879241 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate, Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacodynamic (PD) Markers and Pharmacokinetics (PK) of AP-101 in Participants With Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) NCT05039099 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
• Phase II/III Randomized, Placebo-controlled Trial of Arimoclomol in SOD1 Positive Familial Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis NCT00706147 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
• Study to Investigate the Efficacy and Safety of FAB122 (Daily Oral Edaravone) in Patients With Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis NCT05178810 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.