A Study in Male and Female Subjects With Androgenetic Alopecia Treated With ATI-50002 Topical Solution
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 6% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (240 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2019-10-30, after 2018-03-22 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-10-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: injurydiagnosissafety tolerabilityalopeciadisease
Phrases that lowered it: malescalpsubjectsfemalearea -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
-
Maximum age: 50 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 9 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 50 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 9 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 9 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study of ATI-50002 Topical Solution for the Treatment of Alopecia Areata NCT03354637 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials terminated
- Safety and Pharmacokinetic Study of ATI-50002 in Subjects With Alopecia Universalis (AU) and Alopecia Totalis (AT) NCT03315689 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
- ATI-502 Topical Solution for the Treatment of Alopecia Areata (AA), Alopecia Universalis (AU) and Alopecia Totalis (AT) NCT03759340 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials terminated
- To Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability and Efficacy in Male and Female with AGA Treated with HMI-115 Over a 24-week Treatment Period NCT05324293 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
- To Evaluate Safety and Efficacy of KX-826 in Chinese Female Subjects With Androgenetic Alopecia NCT06409650 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.