A Phase II Study of RC48-ADC in Subjects With HER2 Positive Metastatic or Unresectable Urothelial Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-10-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: her2cancerulnsurgeryanti
  Phrases that lowered it: and safetysafety ofmaleefficacy andevaluate the
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 80 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of RC48-ADC in Subjects With HER2-negative Locally Advanced or Metastatic Urothelial Cancer NCT04073602 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
• A Open-label, Single-arm, Multicenter, Phase II Study of RC48-ADC to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Subjects With HER2 Overexpressing Locally Advanced or Metastatic Urothelial Cancer NCT03809013 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
• A Study of RC48-ADC in Local Advanced or Metastatic Gastric Cancer Subjects With the Overexpression of HER2 NCT03556345 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
• Study of RC48-ADC Administered Intravenously to Subjects With HER2-Positive in Advanced Malignant Solid Tumors NCT02881190 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
• A Study of RC48-ADC in Subjects With Advanced Breast Cancer NCT03052634 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.