A Study of Ustekinumab in Participants With Active Systemic Lupus Erythematosus

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (336 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-11-05. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: doubleplacebo controlledchronicpainpsoriasis
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsarthritiscarcinomaparticipantcell
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 2.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 64.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 123 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 16 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 7130 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 325 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Phase 2a, Efficacy and Safety Study of Ustekinumab in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus NCT02349061 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Dapirolizumab Pegol in Study Participants With Moderately to Severely Active Systemic Lupus Erythematosus NCT04294667 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
• Study of BOS161721 in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE) Patients on a Background of Limited Standard of Care NCT03371251 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed
• Etanercept for the Treatment of Lupus Nephritis NCT00447265 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials terminated
• Study of Safety, Efficacy and Tolerability of Secukinumab Versus Placebo, in Combination With SoC Therapy, in Patients With Active Lupus Nephritis NCT04181762 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.