Acetaminophen Versus IV Hydromorphone for Pain in the Elderly in the ED
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 22% for any early termination, 18% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2022-03-23, after 2018-08-20 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-03-23. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: painopioidequal tocellgreater
Phrases that lowered it: and safetyefficacy andsafety ofelderlytrial -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 65 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 47 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 74.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports before start: 363774 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 101803 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Sponsor's past trials: 124 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- triple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 65 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 124 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 16.9% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 47 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 363774 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 101803 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 74.8% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 22.9% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- acetaminophen, hydromorphone
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- IV Acetaminophen as Adjuvant Analgesic to Hydromorphone - Emergency Department Patients NCT03553498 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
- Comparing the Efficacy of Oral Opioids for Outpatient Acute Pain Management After ED Discharge Discharge NCT01402375 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
- Clinical Trial Comparing Two Protocols Using Intravenous (IV) Hydromorphone NCT01311895 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
- Safety and Efficacy of Intravenous Acetaminophen (IV APAP) in Adult Inpatients NCT00598559 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
- Comparing Five Oral Analgesics for Treatment of Acute Pain in the Emergency Department (ED) NCT03173456 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 53% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.