Allogeneic ABCB5-positive Stem Cells for Treatment of Epidermolysis Bullosa
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 16% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 21% of the time (1,462 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2021-11-26, after 2019-02-16 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-11-26. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 100% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Collaborators: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: patientspatienttumoreligiblecell
Phrases that lowered it: visitand safetyinvestigateclinical trialsingle -
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 0 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 1 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: 55 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 3 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 9 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 0 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 55 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 100% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 3 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- mesenchymal stem cells
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Double-blind, Intra-individual Comparison, POC Trial of AC-203 in EB Patients NCT03468322 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
- ESSENCE Study: Efficacy and Safety of SD-101 Cream in Participants With Epidermolysis Bullosa NCT02384460 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
- Topical BPM31510 3.0% Cream in Patients With Epidermolysis Bullosa NCT02793960 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
- Phase III Efficacy and Safety Study of Oleogel-S10 in Epidermolysis Bullosa NCT03068780 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
- A Study of PTR-01 in Recessive Dystrophic Epidermolysis Bullosa NCT04599881 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.