Aflibercept and 5-FU vs. FOLFOX as 1st Line Treatment for Elderly or Frail Elderly Patients With Met. Colorectal Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-02-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: ulnrandomizationprior tofunctionstart
  Phrases that lowered it: months beforelinecolorectaloxaliplatincardiovascular
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 36.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 70 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Assess the Efficacy and Safety of Treatment With FOLFIRI-aflibercept Compared to Initial Treatment With FOLFIRI-aflibercept (for 6 Cycles) Followed by Maintenance With 5FU-aflibercept, in an Elderly Population With mCRC After Failure of an Oxaliplatin-based Regimen NCT03279289 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
• FOLFIRI + Panitumumab First-line Treatment in Elderly Patients With Unresectable Metastatic Colorectal Cancer, RAS/BRAF Wild-type and Good Performance Status NCT03142516 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials completed
• Cetuximab for Elderly Patients With mCRC NCT01718808 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials terminated
• Regorafenib+FOLFIRI Versus Placebo+FOLFIRI as 2nd Line Tx in Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT01298570 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
• Combination Chemotherapy Plus Bevacizumab With or Without Oxaliplatin in Treating Older Patients With Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT01279681 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.