Trial of Roflumilast in Asthma Management (TRIM)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 21% of the time (143 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-07-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: greaterpatientuncontrolledtrial oftherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: asthmadisorderbmismokingparticipant
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 547 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 149 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 10.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 67.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phosphodiesterase 4 Inhibitor, Roflumilast, and the Effects of Inhibition in Severe Asthma NCT04108377 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials terminated
• Pilot Study of Pioglitazone for the Treatment of Moderate to Severe Asthma in Obese Asthmatics NCT00634036 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
• Pilot Study of Pioglitazone for the Treatment of Moderate to Severe Asthma in Obese Asthmatics (Glitz Asthma) NCT00787644 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials terminated
• MitoQ for the Treatment of Metabolic Dysfunction in Asthma NCT04026711 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• Assessment of the Efficacy and Safety of FlutiForm® pMDI 125/5 µg (2 Puffs Bid) Versus Symbicort® Turbohaler® 200/6 µg (2 Puffs Bid) in Adolescent and Adult Subjects With Moderate to Severe Persistent, Reversible Asthma NCT01099722 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.