Repeat Doses of BAY1902607 in Healthy Males and Proof of Concept in Chronic Cough Patients

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 9% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (45 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-10-11. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: randomizationwomen ofpotentialchronicchildbearing
  Phrases that lowered it: the pharmacokineticseffecthealthyscreeningmedical history
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 782 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 119 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 22.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.2% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 92.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 12137 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Repeat Doses of BAY 1817080 in Healthy Males & Proof of Concept in Chronic Cough Patients NCT03310645 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• Study on the Safety of Drug BAY1817080 at Different Doses and the Way the Body Absorbs and Eliminates the Drug in Japanese Healthy Adult Male Participants NCT04265781 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• A Trial to Learn How a New Liquid Form of BAY1817080 is Tolerated and Taken up by the Body of Healthy Male Participants (Part A). By Labeling BAY1817080 With a Radioactive Substance (Carbon 14) Researchers Want to Learn How the Study Drug is Processed and Excreted by the Body After Dosing (Part B) NCT04487431 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• A Trial to Learn How BAY1817080 Moves Into, Through and Out of the Body and How Safe it is in Healthy Chinese Men NCT04802343 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
• A Study to Investigate the Effect of SB-705498 on Chronic Cough NCT01476098 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.