A Study of Gemcitabine, Nab-paclitaxel, Capecitabine, Cisplatin, and Irinotecan in Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 30% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (851 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-10-03. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancerpaclitaxelpatientpatientssurgery
  Phrases that lowered it: to evaluateevaluate themalepatient whoallergic
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 33.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 9 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 50 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 214 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 28555 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 76 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 5 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 167679 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 24.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: sequential (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Nab-Paclitaxel Plus Gemcitabine Versus Gemcitabine For The First Line Treatment of Pancreas Cancer NCT03807999 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed
• Study of Gemcitabine/Taxotere/Xeloda (GTX) in Combination With Cisplatin and Irinotecan in Subjects With Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer NCT02324543 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• Nab-Paclitaxel Plus Gemcitabine With Concurrent MR-Guided IMRT in Patients With Locally Advanced Pancreatic Cancer NCT02283372 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate Bi-weekly Dosing of Gemcitabine Plus Nab-Paclitaxel to Treat Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer NCT01851174 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials terminated
• Nab-Pac+Cis+Gem in Pts w Previously Untreated Metastatic PDA NCT01893801 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.