Apatinib Combined With Oral Etoposide in Metastatic HER2 Negative Breast Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 17% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2019-05-01, after 2017-05-01 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-05-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: metastaticbraincancermetastasisfunction
Phrases that lowered it: effectbreast cancergoodthe upperabnormal -
Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 28.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 27 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.4% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 75 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- female (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 27 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 7.4% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 27 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 22699 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 3523 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 96.6% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 28.6% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- apatinib, etoposide
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Anlotinib in Metastatic HER2 Negative Breast Cancer NCT04002284 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials completed
- A Phase Ⅱ Study of an All-Oral Combination of Low-dose Etoposide/Capecitabine in Patients With Metastatic Breast Cancer Previously Treated With Anthracyclines and/or Taxanes NCT01589159 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
- A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Trastuzumab in Combination With Capecitabine and Oxaliplatin as First-line Chemotherapy for Inoperable, Locally Advanced or Recurrent and/or Metastatic Gastric Cancer NCT01364493 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
- Multicenter Phase II Study of Apatinib in Patients With Advanced Breast Cancer(CABC006) NCT02878057 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials completed
- Pilot Study to Evaluate Reparixin With Weekly Paclitaxel in Patients With HER 2 Negative Metastatic Breast Cancer (MBC) NCT02001974 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.