A Clinical Study to Test the Effectiveness of an Investigational Drug to Treat People That Have Major Depressive Episodes When They Have Bipolar 1 Depression

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,304 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-04-23. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subject hasmsrandomizationsubject isheart
  Phrases that lowered it: the investigatorscreeningsubject whodays priorevaluate the
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 120 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 18 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 65 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Lurasidone Low-Dose - High-Dose Study Study NCT01821378 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
• Lurasidone Pediatric Bipolar Study NCT02046369 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
• The Safety and Efficacy of Brexpiprazole as Adjunctive Therapy in the Treatment of Major Depressive Disorder NCT03487198 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials terminated
• Safety and Efficacy Study of Ramelteon (TAK-375) Tablets for Sublingual Administration (SL) in Adults With Bipolar 1 Disorder NCT01677182 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials terminated
• Sequential Therapy for the Treatment of Severe Bipolar Depression. NCT02974010 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.