An Early Bactericidal Activity, Safety and Tolerability of GSK3036656 in Subjects With Drug-sensitive Pulmonary Tuberculosis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (780 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-12-14. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 2559 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjectsubjectstypecellspotential
  Phrases that lowered it: timesulnparticipantspulmonaryaminotransferase
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.8% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Design: sequential (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 143 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Phase 2 Trial to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Linezolid in Tuberculosis Patients. (LIN-CL001) NCT02279875 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• Early Bactericidal Activity, Safety & Tolerability of Oral GSK3036656 in a Dual Combination With Novel and Established Antitubercular Agents, or Standard of Care in Adults With Rifampicin Susceptible Pulmonary Tuberculosis NCT05382312 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
• Shortening Treatment by Advancing Novel Drugs NCT02342886 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• Evaluating the EBA of Meropenem With Amoxicillin/Clavulanate and Pyrazinamide or Bedaquiline in Adults With PTB NCT04629378 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of Early Bactericidal Activity in Pulmonary Tuberculosis (TMC207-CL001) NCT01215110 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.