Clinical Trial of YYD302 (Phase3) for Treatment of Osteoarthritis of the Knee

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 5% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 12% of the time (114 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-10-04. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: diseaseheartactivepatientmonths
  Phrases that lowered it: kneepatients whoosteoarthritistrialefficacy
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 4 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Clinical Trial of YYD302 for Treatment of Osteoarthritis of the Knee NCT02965495 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• A Clinical Trial to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of Retreatment With Intra-articular LBSA0103 Injections in the Patients With Osteoarthritis of the Knee NCT02122601 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• Pivotal Study to Evaluate Efficacy and Safety of SP5M001 Inj. as Compared to Synovian Inj. in Patients With Mild to Moderate Knee Osteoarthritis NCT06307847 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• Phase III Study on the Safety and Efficacy of a Single Intra-articular Administration of JTA-004 in Symptomatic Knee Osteoarthritis NCT04333160 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
• Study of Cingal® and Triamcinolone Hexacetonide for the Relief of Knee Osteoarthritis Pain NCT04231318 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.